2014 Governor · IA
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 423 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 58%
R+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%
R+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 58 = -21.00
- Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
- Signed miss = -21.00 − (-21.721) = 0.721
- Absolute miss = |0.721| = 0.721
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33788, race ID 1226 (538 database).