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2014 Governor · AL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 661 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 63%

R+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.24% · Republican 63.56%

R+27.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 63 = -38.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.240 − 63.557 = -27.317
  3. Signed miss = -38.00 − (-27.317) = -10.684
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.684| = 10.684

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33791, race ID 1220 (538 database).