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2014 Governor · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 47%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 47 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-4.066) = -3.934
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.934| = 3.934

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33792, race ID 1248 (538 database).