Skip to content

2014 Senate · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 34%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 34 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (13.285) = -2.285
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.285| = 2.285

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33792, race ID 2 (538 database).