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2014 Governor · ME

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,177 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 35%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.37% · Republican 48.19%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 35 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.374 − 48.185 = -4.811
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-4.811) = 6.811
  4. Absolute miss = |6.811| = 6.811

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33796, race ID 1224 (538 database).