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2014 Governor · GA

Abt Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,170 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.860) = 2.860
  4. Absolute miss = |2.860| = 2.860

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33797, race ID 1249 (538 database).