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2014 Senate · GA

Abt Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,170 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 44%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-7.683) = 5.683
  4. Absolute miss = |5.683| = 5.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33797, race ID 17 (538 database).