Skip to content

2014 Senate · SC

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,566 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 57%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.01% · Republican 60.15%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 57 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.014 − 60.151 = -22.137
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-22.137) = -6.863
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.863| = 6.863

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33798, race ID 36 (538 database).