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2014 Senate · SD

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 48%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.51% · Republican 50.37%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 48 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.511 − 50.370 = -20.859
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-20.859) = -3.140
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.140| = 3.140

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33799, race ID 22 (538 database).