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2014 Senate · HI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 70% · Republican 18%

D+52.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.77% · Republican 27.70%

D+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 70 − 18 = 52.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.770 − 27.703 = 42.067
  3. Signed miss = 52.00 − (42.067) = 9.933
  4. Absolute miss = |9.933| = 9.933

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33802, race ID 34 (538 database).