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2014 Senate · NH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,042 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 41%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (3.244) = 1.756
  4. Absolute miss = |1.756| = 1.756

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33803, race ID 8 (538 database).