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2014 Senate · NJ

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 525 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.84% · Republican 42.33%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.836 − 42.326 = 13.510
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (13.510) = 2.490
  4. Absolute miss = |2.490| = 2.490

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33805, race ID 10 (538 database).