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2014 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 3,987 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 57%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.37% · Republican 61.56%

R+27.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 57 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.365 − 61.560 = -27.195
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-27.195) = 5.195
  4. Absolute miss = |5.195| = 5.195

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33806, race ID 19 (538 database).