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2014 Senate · NC

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 1,022 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.565) = -3.436
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.436| = 3.436

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33808, race ID 14 (538 database).