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2014 Governor · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,611 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.342) = 0.658
  4. Absolute miss = |0.658| = 0.658

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33809, race ID 1247 (538 database).