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2014 Governor · AR

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,567 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 47%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.49% · Republican 55.44%

R+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 47 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.494 − 55.436 = -13.942
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-13.942) = 4.942
  4. Absolute miss = |4.942| = 4.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33811, race ID 1232 (538 database).