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2014 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 919 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 48%

R+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 48 = -2.30
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = -2.30 − (-4.066) = 1.766
  4. Absolute miss = |1.766| = 1.766

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33812, race ID 1248 (538 database).