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2014 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 919 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51.1% · Republican 37.5%

D+13.6

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.1 − 37.5 = 13.60
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 13.60 − (13.285) = 0.315
  4. Absolute miss = |0.315| = 0.315

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33812, race ID 2 (538 database).