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2014 Senate · CO

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 695 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.945) = -3.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.056| = 3.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33813, race ID 23 (538 database).