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2014 Governor · SD

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 527 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 54%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 25.43% · Republican 70.47%

R+45.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 54 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 25.432 − 70.467 = -45.035
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-45.035) = 19.035
  4. Absolute miss = |19.035| = 19.035

The poll overstated the Democrat by 19.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33814, race ID 1229 (538 database).