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2014 Governor · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.2% · Republican 47.7%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.2 − 47.7 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-7.860) = 5.360
  4. Absolute miss = |5.360| = 5.360

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33815, race ID 1249 (538 database).