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2014 Senate · MI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 723 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 39%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (13.285) = 0.715
  4. Absolute miss = |0.715| = 0.715

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33819, race ID 2 (538 database).