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2014 Governor · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 921 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50.7% · Republican 42.5%

D+8.2

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.7 − 42.5 = 8.20
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 8.20 − (4.948) = 3.252
  4. Absolute miss = |3.252| = 3.252

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33820, race ID 1234 (538 database).