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2014 House · NH-2

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 460 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 43%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.87% · Republican 44.87%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.874 − 44.869 = 10.005
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.005) = -4.004
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.004| = 4.004

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33820, race ID 5575 (538 database).