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2014 Senate · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 921 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 47.7%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 47.7 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (3.244) = -3.644
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.644| = 3.644

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33820, race ID 8 (538 database).