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2014 Senate · DE

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 461 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 36%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 42.23%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 36 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.826 − 42.225 = 13.601
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (13.601) = 4.399
  4. Absolute miss = |4.399| = 4.399

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33823, race ID 24 (538 database).