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2014 Governor · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 866 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 54%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.90% · Republican 59.27%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 54 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.904 − 59.271 = -20.367
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-20.367) = 4.367
  4. Absolute miss = |4.367| = 4.367

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33824, race ID 1254 (538 database).