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2014 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 866 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 57%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.37% · Republican 61.56%

R+27.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 57 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.365 − 61.560 = -27.195
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-27.195) = 1.195
  4. Absolute miss = |1.195| = 1.195

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33824, race ID 19 (538 database).