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2014 Governor · KS

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,124 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.13% · Republican 49.82%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.130 − 49.821 = -3.691
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-3.691) = 8.691
  4. Absolute miss = |8.691| = 8.691

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33825, race ID 1228 (538 database).