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2014 Senate · MI

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (13.285) = -4.285
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.285| = 4.285

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33830, race ID 2 (538 database).