Skip to content

2014 Governor · MI

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 1,032 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-4.066) = 7.066
  4. Absolute miss = |7.066| = 7.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33832, race ID 1248 (538 database).