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2014 Senate · MI

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 1,032 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 33%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 33 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (13.285) = 1.715
  4. Absolute miss = |1.715| = 1.715

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33832, race ID 2 (538 database).