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2014 Governor · ID

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 575 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 53%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 53.52%

R+15.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 53 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.550 − 53.522 = -14.972
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.972) = -3.029
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.029| = 3.029

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33836, race ID 1223 (538 database).