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2014 Governor · NH

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 39.2%

D+10.2

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 39.2 = 10.20
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 10.20 − (4.948) = 5.252
  4. Absolute miss = |5.252| = 5.252

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33837, race ID 1234 (538 database).