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2014 Senate · NH

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 45.6%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 45.6 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (3.244) = -0.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.244| = 0.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33837, race ID 8 (538 database).