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2014 Senate · CO

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2014-10-17 (18 days before the election) · 1,099 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.945) = -0.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.056| = 0.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33838, race ID 23 (538 database).