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2014 Senate · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 764 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.244) = 0.756
  4. Absolute miss = |0.756| = 0.756

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33839, race ID 8 (538 database).