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2014 Governor · OR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 561 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 38%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.89% · Republican 44.13%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.889 − 44.127 = 5.762
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (5.762) = 7.238
  4. Absolute miss = |7.238| = 7.238

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33841, race ID 1240 (538 database).