Skip to content

2014 Governor · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,728 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 54%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.03% · Republican 63.64%

R+30.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 54 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.030 − 63.642 = -30.612
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-30.612) = 11.612
  4. Absolute miss = |11.612| = 11.612

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33888, race ID 1243 (538 database).