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2014 House · NH-1

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 556 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.10% · Republican 51.71%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.105 − 51.706 = -3.601
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-3.601) = -2.400
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.400| = 2.400

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33966, race ID 5574 (538 database).