2014 House · NH-2
New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 576 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.87% · Republican 44.87%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 54.874 − 44.869 = 10.005
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.005) = -3.004
- Absolute miss = |-3.004| = 3.004
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33966, race ID 5575 (538 database).