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2014 Senate · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 1,132 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 48.3%

R+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 48.3 = -1.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = -1.50 − (3.244) = -4.744
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.744| = 4.744

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33966, race ID 8 (538 database).