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2014 Governor · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 45%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 45 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-4.066) = -0.934
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.934| = 0.934

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33989, race ID 1248 (538 database).