Skip to content

2014 Senate · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 32.6%

D+15.1

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 32.6 = 15.10
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 15.10 − (13.285) = 1.815
  4. Absolute miss = |1.815| = 1.815

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33989, race ID 2 (538 database).