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2014 Governor · ME

Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39.7% · Republican 40.3%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 43.37% · Republican 48.19%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.7 − 40.3 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 43.374 − 48.185 = -4.811
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-4.811) = 4.211
  4. Absolute miss = |4.211| = 4.211

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34008, race ID 1224 (538 database).