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2014 House · ME-1

Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 207 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 18.3%

D+43.7

The certified result

Democrat 60.43% · Republican 30.67%

D+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 18.3 = 43.70
  2. Actual margin = 60.432 − 30.674 = 29.758
  3. Signed miss = 43.70 − (29.758) = 13.942
  4. Absolute miss = |13.942| = 13.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34008, race ID 5513 (538 database).