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2014 Governor · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 7,463 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 37%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.97% · Republican 40.03%

D+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 37 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.970 − 40.030 = 19.940
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (19.940) = -1.940
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.940| = 1.940

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34013, race ID 1255 (538 database).