Skip to content

2014 Governor · AR

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 42%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.49% · Republican 55.44%

R+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.494 − 55.436 = -13.942
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-13.942) = 15.942
  4. Absolute miss = |15.942| = 15.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34044, race ID 1232 (538 database).