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2014 Governor · IL

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.35% · Republican 50.27%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.347 − 50.270 = -3.923
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.923) = 2.922
  4. Absolute miss = |2.922| = 2.922

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34052, race ID 1252 (538 database).