Skip to content

2014 Governor · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 614 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 53%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.78% · Republican 57.22%

R+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 53 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.777 − 57.223 = -14.446
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-14.446) = -0.554
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.554| = 0.554

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34098, race ID 1235 (538 database).